16-in-16 2025: Auburn Tigers
Hugh Freeze has had a very up and down two years on the Plains. With a talented roster and big name transfer QB, is year three when the Tigers make a big leap?
By: Hammer
For a refresher on our ratings system, check out our 16-in-16 ratings guide here.
Auburn is one of the more perplexing programs in the country. Over the last 15 years, there have been some really high highs and some really low lows. They can’t seem to figure out how to sustain success. The Tigers jump up every few years and then return to mediocrity. This is especially true since they fired Gus Malzahn, as Auburn is 22-28 overall since his departure. Hugh Freeze was a big-name hire two years ago, but has only mustered an 11-14 record in his two seasons. Auburn has been more patient with Freeze than they were with Bryan Harsin, but patience is wearing thin.
Freeze has made some questionable decisions, namely not going after a transfer portal QB last year and opting to roll with Payton Thorne for a second straight season, leading to a 5-7 record in his second season. As usual, hopes are high on The Plains. Folks around the program believe this is one of the most talented teams Auburn has had in years. Freeze has recruited well and hit the portal hard.
Can snake oil salesman Hugh revive this proud program? It’s going to be fascinating to watch either way.
State of the Program: 5/12 biscuits - pretty dang burnt, but you can cut the top off and eat it like a silver lining. There’s a little hope.
Auburn fans might find this rating harsh (the barners can be defensive, as we all can), but what else am I supposed to do? Auburn hasn’t had a winning season since the COVID-shortened 2020 season, and they haven’t won 10 games since 2017. The current state of the program is bad. Like below .500 bad. They are a losing program right now…but there is some hope on Toomer’s Corner. If we were to rate every Power 4 conference with our proprietary, scientific biscuit rating, Auburn would be the most likely 5/12 rated team to make a big jump, or at least the most talented 5/12 rated team. That’s typically the case with Auburn because they are always talented. The recent underachievement is perplexing, but the potential remains. Thus, hope springs eternal.
Freeze finally made a big move on a QB in the portal, landing Jackson Arnold. The Tigers landed a top 10 overall portal class in 2025 and have notched back-to-back top 10 recruiting classes in 2024 and 2025. It’s all there for Freeze and Auburn to take a big step forward in 2025. The fanbase, the commitment, the money, the talent. You name it, Auburn has it. Freeze has been great at making excuses in his two years at Auburn, but the time for excuses has run out. It’s put up or shut up time.
Part of the reason it’s put up or shut up time is the investment on The Plains. First we have to mention all the buyout money Auburn ponied up to fire Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin. In terms of NIL, Auburn boosters are digging deep to find money amidst all the buyouts and handed out an estimated $11.5 million in NIL payments last season. That number is pretty middle of the road in the SEC and on par with schools like Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Freeze probably wants more, but the results have to match the investment and so far they have not. In addition to the buyouts and NIL money, Auburn has approved major upgrades to Jordan-Hare stadium set to begin soon. On the coaching staff side, Auburn saves some money at OC since Hugh Freeze handles the play calling and it’s his offense. Derrick Nix is the OC and he is only making $800,000 annually, a low number these days for an SEC coordinator. But on defense, DJ Durkin is making $2.5 million per year, making him the second highest paid coordinator in the country. Auburn may not be at the very tip top of the SEC in terms of investment right now, but they aren’t taking a back seat to many. There is money on The Plains and Freeze need to start delivering some return on investment.
What went right in 2024?
Much more went wrong in 2024 than went right. That’s how you wind up 5-7 and fail to make a bowl game. However, there were some good things for Auburn in 2024. The Tiger defense was solid, only allowing 21.3 PPG, good enough for 27th nationally. They also upset #15 Texas A&M in Jordan-Hare in a thrilling four overtime classic. At the time, A&M was in the driver’s seat to make the SEC title game in Atlanta.
Despite extended periods of inadequacy and a strong inclination to turn the ball over, Auburn’s offense had two bright spots worth shouting out. First, Jarquez Hunter was one of the more exciting players in the conference last season, totaling 1,201 rushing yards and eight TDs on just 187 carries. Hunter is in the NFL now, but the other bright spot, Cam Coleman, is back for his sophomore season. Coleman showed why he was a consensus five-star recruit in the 2024 class with quite a few highlight reel plays during his freshman year. He managed to catch 37 balls for 598 yards and eight TDs even though Auburn’s passing game was incredibly inconsistent. Coleman is poised for a breakout year in 2025.
What went wrong in 2024?
As mentioned above, the Auburn defense was solid in 2024. Perhaps not elite, but good enough to win ballgames and compete. The issues mostly came on the offensive side of the ball. Payton Thorne, as everyone other than Hugh Freeze expected, struggled with turnovers. Those turnovers resulted in Auburn blowing a few games late, like Oklahoma and Missouri. Overall, Thorne’s statistics improved, but those feel misleading if you watched week in and week out. The Auburn offense only managed 27.8 PPG and was ranked 71st nationally. Not great. Thorne’s worst game was by far the week two loss at home to Cal, where Thorne threw four picks and Auburn lost 21-14. Losing to Cal at home is about as low as an SEC program can get.
Outside of Thorne, I think Freeze made several critical errors last year. One that stands out was the decision to start Hank Brown in week four against Arkansas. I have some sympathy here as Thorne wasn’t playing well, and Freeze probably felt like he had to do something. Unfortunately, Brown threw three interceptions in the first half before Freeze benched him for Thorne, and Auburn lost 24-14. The glaring issue for Auburn’s offense in 2024 was Freeze’s refusal to give the ball to Jarquez Hunter. Hunter averaged 6.4 yards per carry, as we have detailed, and the Auburn passing game was woefully inconsistent. Yet, Freeze kept trying to air it out to earn wins. In games where Hunter carried the ball 20+ times, Auburn was undefeated with wins over Texas A&M and Kentucky (their only two SEC wins). But he only toted the rock 20+ times in three games. Refusing to use Hunter continues to puzzle me, and I think it cost Auburn a game or two. Definitely the wrong decision.
What Auburn needs in 2025
Again, this mostly revolves around the offense. I trust the Tiger defense to be good. DJ Durkin is a solid DC, and he will field a competent defense that will keep Auburn in games. The offense will need to make serious strides for Auburn to reach expectations, and that begins with transfer QB Jackson Arnold. Arnold is a former 5-star recruit who is entering his third year in college. Last season went very poorly for Arnold at Oklahoma, but the offense around him was abysmal, and he still possesses all the physical tools that made him such a sought-after recruit. The main concern with Arnold is his turnover-prone history, so he will need to limit those in 2025. With Cam Coleman returning and two blue chip transfers at wideout in Eric Singleton Jr and Horatio Fields, Arnold will have plenty of weapons. The Auburn offensive line will also need to improve, as Thorne was harassed consistently in 2024. For notable improvement up front, Auburn needs transfers Xavier Chaplin and Mason Murphy to pan out.
Lastly, the Tigers just need Hugh Freeze to get out of his own way. It really felt like last year Freeze was trying to force things (ahem, throwing the football) rather than playing to his team's strengths. I don’t think humility is a word often used to describe Freeze, but he will need to humble himself this year and get back some of that magic he found at Ole Miss. I know Freeze is capable of being a good coach. He’s doing well at Auburn in the talent acquisition portion of the job (at least he has in the 2024 and 2025 classes), he just needs to find a rhythm on the field, otherwise he might be out of a job after the season.
How they can earn some extra biscuits
Making a bowl game is not good enough at Auburn. That program is too proud, and the roster is too good. Auburn needs to win at least 7-8 games to earn more biscuits. The team is plenty talented to do so, and Freeze has shown the ability to win at a high level in his past. If Auburn can get to eight wins in 2025, they will undoubtedly earn more biscuits, and many would consider, for the first time since before COVID, that this program is on the rise.
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