16-in-16 2025: LSU Tigers
Will LSU finally break through under Brian Kelly? With a returning QB, all the pieces seem to be in place.
By: Hammer
For a refresher on our ratings system, check out our 16-in-16 ratings guide here.
This season feels like a make or break one in Baton Rouge. Luring Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame was a big deal for LSU, but that was three and half years ago. Kelly’s tenure thus far has been solid, but hasn’t lived up to his own, or LSU’s, expectations. Kelly came to Baton Rouge to win titles. So far he’s lost an SEC championship game to Georgia and won a Heisman, but has not won anything of note, and has yet to make the CFP. Regular season win totals of nine, nine and eight are not what the LSU faithful expected. Kelly’s seat isn’t hot yet, but it will be if he can’t get something done this year. Garrett Nussmeier returning to school immediately raised the stakes of this coming season, and LSU is not shying away from the expectations. They believe this team is ready to compete for an SEC and national title. The time for excuses is over and the time for results has arrived.
State of the Program: 9/12 biscuits: Dark horse to win the conference; Pillsbury Golden Flaky layers. Very good, with a few more layers would be elite.
It’s hard to call LSU a darkhorse to win the conference because many national pundits are picking them to win the league. It would not be a big of a surprise given the talent they have, but LSU hasn’t done that since 2019, long before Brian Kelly took over. LSU has been a good to very good program under Kelly, but they have not been elite. There is a clear line of demarcation between the elite teams in college football and LSU right now. All the pieces are in place for LSU to ascend into that elite tier, but we have to see it before we go handing out biscuits. The Tigers need to make it happen on the field.
The last three coaches at LSU (Nick Saban, Les Miles, and Ed Orgeron) have all won a national title in Baton Rouge. That stat alone, especially given what Les Miles and Ed Orgeron have become, is proof enough that all the ingredients needed to win at a high level exist in spades at LSU. The fan base is rabid. High school talent is plentiful in Louisiana, and LSU has a ton of money to play ball in the transfer portal, as well as the high school recruiting ranks, in order to get elite players on campus. In fact, LSU’s collective reportedly paid out over $20 million in 2024, which was second in the SEC behind Texas.
As you will recall, LSU also went 8-4 in 2024 so not exactly a great return on investment and a big reason for some restlessness in Baton Rouge. You can bet your bottom dollar that the NIL payroll is at least that much this year because convincing Nussmeier to come back to school and landing the #1 rated transfer portal class is not cheap (like other schools, LSU likely frontloaded a bunch of payments to circumvent the revenue sharing cap that began July 1st). In addition to the #1 overall transfer class this past cycle, LSU has landed a top 10 recruiting class each of the last three years and four of the last five. The Tigers are as talented as anyone in the country.
LSU also pays up for their coaching staff. I mentioned luring Kelly away from Notre Dame was a big deal, and you don’t do that without paying the piper. Kelly signed a 10 year, $95 million dollar contract when he was hired. Similarly, defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s contract pays him $2.5 million per year, making him the highest paid assistant coach in college football history.
Finally, LSU takes a back seat to no one in terms of facilities. Death Valley is often considered the most difficult road atmosphere in the country, and the 100,000 plus screaming Tiger fans back that up every year. It’s an elite stadium and LSU recently completed a nearly $20 million renovation that included new lights, video boards and a new sound system. In Louisiana, football is king and LSU is the pride and joy of the entire state. Unlike the State of Alabama, or other states across the SEC, there is no other major college program to split fans. Everyone is all in on LSU. That’s why it’s high time for Brian Kelly to make a serious run in Baton Rouge.
What went right in 2024?
Although the defense was not nearly good enough in 2024 to say that side of the ball went “right,” I feel confident that Brian Kelly made the right hire on that side of the ball. Blake Baker improved the LSU defense from 108th in yards per game in 2023 up to 61st in 2024. Again, being 61st in yards per game allowed at LSU is not something to brag about, but clearly Baker’s coaching worked and there should be more improvement in 2025.
LSU also found a QB in 2024 and convinced him to stay in school for one more year in 2025. Garrett Nussmeier wasn’t perfect in 2024, but he was second in the SEC in passing yards, throwing for 4,052 yards along with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Those 12 interceptions will need to be cleaned up, but the ceiling is high for Nussmeier. Not to mention 2024 was Nussmeier’s first year starting at QB in college, so a second year jump feels likely. Finding a QB with Nussmeier’s talent level bodes well for 2025.
What went wrong in 2024?
An 8-4 season at LSU will always have more wrong than right. LSU has too many things stacked in its favor to consider 8-4 a good year. On offense, the Nussmeier interceptions certainly hurt. But the real issue was the lack of running game. Nussmeier was second in the country in pass attempts per game at over 40, meaning the entire offense was on his shoulders every single week. Despite a veteran offensive line that had four players drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft, LSU refused to run the ball. The Tigers finished 107th in the country in rush yards per game at 116.4. Caden Durham showed flashes, but was never given the chance to really carry the rock. Perhaps that is an offensive scheme/identity issue, or the offensive line really did a bad job of run blocking, but the fact remains LSU did not run the football with any effectiveness in 2024.
On defense, the team was quite average. The secondary was prone to busts, and the Tigers really got crushed with the QB run game against Texas A&M and Alabama. In the A&M game, LSU was riding a 6 game win streak and held a 17-7 lead at halftime. In the second half, Aggie QB Marcel Reed led four consecutive touchdown drives while only throwing 2 passes in the entire second half. Reed and the Aggie running backs ran right at the LSU defense and the Tigers had no answer. The same thing happened against Alabama, only it was even worse. Jalen Milroe and the Tide went into Death Valley and ripped out LSU’ soul, dominating LSU 42-13. Milroe ran for 185 yards and four touchdowns on just 12 carries. The Tide ran for 311 yards as a team. These two games stand out in particular, but the physicality of LSU’s defense was lacking in 2024. Over the years LSU has been known to strike fear in opponents with their hard hitting, physical defense. Unfortunately for Tiger fans, that has not been the case in quite a while on the Bayou.
What the Tigers needs in 2025
They need quite a bit to go their way, which is why I’m lower on the Tigers than some. First, they have to figure out a way to run the football. It’s wild to me how bad they have been at running the damn football under Brian Kelly (with the exception of Jayden Daniels). LSU used to churn out NFL running backs and lately they just can’t run with any consistency. Caden Durham is a good tailback, but they need the new offensive line pieces to gel quickly with four new starters up front. I trust Nussmeier to cut down on his turnovers simply with more experience in his second season as a starter, but that could be an issue if he doesn’t clean those up. If LSU can run the ball, Nussmeier won’t have to make as many risky throws, or throw the ball 40+ times a game, which will inevitably cut down on turnovers.
On defense, LSU is playing transfer portal roulette and they need to hit it big. Five of the seven players in the front seven return, and with additions of Jack Pyburn (transfer from UF) and Patrick Peyton (transfer from FSU), the run defense issues highlighted above should be less glaring. On the back end of the defense, LSU has to improve and the whole secondary, with the exception of Ashton Stamps at corner, is likely new faces from the portal. The transfer haul at DB looks great on paper: AJ Haulcy (All big 12 safety from Houston), Mansoor Delane (all ACC corner from VT) and Tamarcus Cooley (starting safety for NC State). Those dudes have to learn the new system and gel quickly, just like the offensive line, because LSU’s schedule is brutal and brutal early. The opener against Clemson and week three game against Florida does not give LSU the luxury of starting slow. They need all these portal players to be making an impact in week one.
How they can earn some extra biscuits
I’d like to say LSU, especially with its recent history, needs to win an SEC title to get more biscuits. However, I think making the CFP and winning a game would also accomplish that feat. To me, those two seasons would be fairly interchangeable because winning the SEC means you have an elite team, and making the CFP quarterfinals would at least signify progress for Brian Kelly. Simply making the CFP, depending on how the season plays out, could potentially earn LSU an extra biscuit but I’m not ready to commit to that given the expectations. If they simply make the CFP and then get bounced in the first round, would any LSU fan be satisfied? Would Brian Kelly be satisfied? I doubt it. So rather than just being a top 12 team at the end of the year in the CFP committee’s eyes, LSU needs to actually make some legitimate noise to earn extra biscuits. Getting from 9 biscuits to 10 biscuits is no small feat.
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